Gold smashes records — why I think 4000 is the next big target
Dollar squeeze, stocks at all-time highs, and why chasing tops is risky
My Boomerang Trend strategy: how I’m playing pullbacks in gold and indices
Gold just can’t stop. It smashed through all-time highs again last week after the Fed finally pulled the trigger on that much-anticipated 25bp rate cut. Not only that, but the projections now have two more cuts pencilled in for this year. Throw in global tensions and sinking yields, and you’ve got the perfect recipe for gold’s relentless march higher. Personally, I think 4000 is firmly in play over the coming months.
Now, here’s the twist: while gold is flying, the US dollar has quietly flexed. After sinking to fresh 3-year lows right after the cut, the greenback has bounced back over 1.5% as short-dollar positions got squeezed out. Futures are now pricing an 80% chance of another cut before year-end, and around a 60% chance of more easing in Q1 next year.
Stocks Loving the Cheap Money
The stock market also had a party:
- S&P 500 – new highs.
- Dow 30 – new highs.
- Nasdaq – new highs.
Lower rates = cheaper borrowing + juicier stock returns. Investors are piling in, and companies suddenly find expansion a little easier to fund. Classic recipe for risk-on.
Sterling Struggles – Tax Man Cometh
The British Pound? Brutal week. Down almost 2% from the weekly highs. Even though the Bank of England held rates and sounded fairly hawkish, sterling still took a beating. Why? Because the UK’s books look messy. Borrowing is ballooning to record levels, and with the November budget looming, tax hikes are almost certainly on the table. That fiscal drag is overshadowing anything the BoE says right now.
Japan: The Sleeping Giant
Over in Japan, the BoJ kept rates steady as expected. But here’s the eyebrow-raiser: two members voted for a hike. Wage growth is showing signs of life, which usually leads inflation higher. The problem? Political instability at home and Trump’s tariffs abroad. That mix likely keeps the BoJ pinned until next year. But when they do eventually move higher, the carry trade unwind could be a monster. Keep it on your radar.
The Week Ahead
It’s a lighter calendar, but not boring:
- US PCE inflation (Friday): This is the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, and I’ll be streaming it LIVE. Expectations are for a small dip from last month. Even with fewer hard data points, a flood of Fed speakers are lined up — traders will be hanging on every word for hints about the timing of the next cuts.
- Australia CPI (Tuesday): Prices are expected to hold firm, which likely keeps the RBA on pause next week. Futures only give a 16% chance of a cut next week, but that jumps to 70% by November. For me, the AUD looks attractive against weaker currencies like GBP or CHF.
- SNB decision (Thursday): No fireworks expected — rates at 0.00% likely unchanged.
My Playbook
For me, the best trade right now is the simplest one: follow the trends. Chasing tops is a quick way to get burned, but buying the dips in trending markets? That’s where the edge is.
With gold and stocks both sitting at all-time highs, my focus is on pullbacks. ‘ll be looking to trade my Boomerang Trend strategy, which I teach in the PropIQ Masterclass. It’s about timing those entries so you’re not guessing tops, you’re riding momentum.
Bottom Line
- Gold: still flying, 4000 on the horizon.
- USD: short squeeze alive and well.
- Stocks: all-time highs across the board.
- Sterling: fiscal woes dragging it lower.
- AUD: shaping up nicely against weaker peers.
This week might look quieter on paper, but don’t be fooled — the right setups are out there if you’re patient and play the pullbacks.
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About Andrew Lockwood
Andrew Lockwood is a seasoned professional trader with over 40 years of experience in financial markets. Starting his career on the floor of the London International Financial Futures Exchange (LIFFE) in the 1980s, Andrew has traded through multiple market cycles and volatility regimes. Today, he specialises in prop trading strategies, focusing on technical setups, risk management, and trader psychology. As the founder of PropIQ and a leading mentor, Andrew is dedicated to training the next generation of prop traders with proven, real-world trading methods.