Gold still on track to $4000
Buying the Stockmarket dip.
The USD ended the week stronger for a second week in a row. US consumers are still spending, and the data backs it up. Inflation remains sticky — the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index came in at 2.9% YoY, above the Fed’s 2% target. GDP surprised to the upside, growing 3.8% last quarter vs. 3.3% expected. With that kind of data, the dollar’s strength isn’t shocking, even after last week’s dovish FOMC signals.
Now, here’s the elephant in the room: Trump. He wants rates lower — it eases the US government’s debt payments, boosts growth, and supports the stock market. Trouble is, the Fed is independent. Trump has been outspoken, calling Powell everything from “Too Late Powell,” “Numbskull,” “Moron,” “Not a smart person,” “Stubborn,” and “Stupid person.” He clearly wants Powell out to push rates down. Right now, he can’t. But come January 2026, Powell’s term ends, and Trump gets to appoint the next chair. Expect a Fed that will favor employment over inflation, which could mean falling rates, a weaker USD, a stronger stock market, and gold at $4000 still firmly on the radar.
Other markets this week:
- AUD / Australia: RBA is expected to hold at 3.6%. GDP growth and falling unemployment could add inflationary pressure, but last week’s AUD weakness was largely USD-driven.
- US Non-Farm Payrolls (Friday): Labor data has been the main driver behind rate expectations. A weak number could erase recent USD gains; a strong print may push the dollar higher.
- GBP / UK: Sterling continues to slide, pressured by USD strength and domestic fiscal concerns. Selling GBP against EUR remains the preferred trade.
- Oil: Keep an eye on Wednesday — OPEC meetings could influence production and move prices.
Equities: Stocks posted their first negative week in a month. Pullbacks create opportunities, but remember: trade your strategy, trade what you see, not what you think. That’s the core of what we teach in PropIQ — strategy, psychology, risk management, and disciplined execution.
Pick your battles this week. Stay disciplined, follow your plan, and keep the orange elephant in mind — policy shifts can move markets fast, and preparation is everything.
Disclaimer: This market commentary is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It reflects the opinions of the author at the time of writing and should not be taken as financial or investment advice.
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About Andrew Lockwood
Andrew Lockwood is a seasoned professional trader with over 40 years of experience in financial markets. Starting his career on the floor of the London International Financial Futures Exchange (LIFFE) in the 1980s, Andrew has traded through multiple market cycles and volatility regimes. Today, he specialises in prop trading strategies, focusing on technical setups, risk management, and trader psychology. As the founder of PropIQ and a leading mentor, Andrew is dedicated to training the next generation of prop traders with proven, real-world trading methods.